Possible scenario
Lula Recovers Narrowly
28% Chance
Lula regains ground by mobilizing poorer voters, public-sector unions and northeastern governors. Investors reassess the probability of renewed state intervention, weaker fiscal consolidation and heavier use of public banks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.8%
- Utilities -1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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