Possible scenario
Nomination Stalls
25% Chance
Democrats cannot filibuster, but they can block confirmation if they persuade enough Republicans to defect or delay. This becomes plausible if Trump chooses a nominee viewed as personally loyal to him rather than institutionally conservative.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology -0.2%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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