Possible scenario
Republicans Confirm Nominee
50% Chance
Senate Republicans retain enough unity to move a Trump Supreme Court nominee despite Democratic objections. Because the Supreme Court filibuster no longer exists, Chuck Schumer and Senate Democrats can slow the process but cannot stop it without Republican defections.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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