Possible scenario
Trump Recalibrates Choice
15% Chance
After seeing Democratic unity and possible Republican unease, Trump chooses a more conventional Federalist Society conservative. The nominee is still ideologically right-of-center, but less personally tied to Trump and less vulnerable on ethics or election issues.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology +0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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