Broader Iran-KRG Escalation

The Khor Mor attack becomes part of a broader pressure campaign involving Iran-aligned groups, and possibly direct IRGC signaling, against Iraqi Kurdistan. This remains a lower-probability scenario because Baghdad, Tehran, Erbil, and Washington all have incentives to avoid a wider conflict, but the recent IRGC and drone-strike pattern keeps the risk material.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.