Political Legal Escalation

10%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

A lower-probability but plausible path is that Congress turns the accusation into a public political investigation. This could produce reputational damage, contract scrutiny, and legal claims, though immediate market effects would still be concentrated in AI and government technology.

What it moves

Technology−0.9%
Business Services−0.3%
Industrials+0.1%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?