Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliation Cycle
27% Chance
Riyadh concludes that accepting another limited strike would invite further attacks, especially after recent hits on Khurais and a major refinery. Saudi forces respond against Houthi launch infrastructure, raising the risk of reciprocal attacks on energy assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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