Possible scenario
Contained Aramco Attack
40% Chance
Saudi authorities frame the strike on Aramco headquarters as a security breach rather than a production event. Air defenses remain on alert, but export terminals, Khurais, Abqaiq and Ras Tanura continue operating, allowing crude markets to stabilize after the initial Brent spike.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.