Possible scenario
Oman-Brokered Pause
18% Chance
The Aramco headquarters strike gives Oman and the United Nations leverage to restart de-escalation talks. Riyadh still resists a truce that locks in lost territory, but both sides may accept a narrow pause covering energy infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.6%
- Consumer Services +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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