Possible scenario
Protests Broaden Nationally
30% Chance
The decree becomes a rallying point for unions, students, Petro’s coalition, and civil-liberties groups. Marches expand beyond Bogotá into Cali, Medellín, Barranquilla, and Bucaramanga, raising near-term disruption risk for transport, retail, and financial activity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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