Possible scenario
Institutional Rollback
22% Chance
Colombia’s courts, prosecutors, mayors, and ombudsman institutions challenge the decree’s detention and dispersal powers. Cabal’s government avoids repealing the measure outright but accepts revisions to reduce legal and diplomatic costs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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