Possible scenario
Managed De-Escalation
38% Chance
President María Fernanda Cabal keeps the new riot decree in force but authorizes Interior Ministry talks with Bogotá Mayor Carlos Fernando Galán, student groups, CUT, and human-rights monitors. Gustavo Petro remains visible in marches, but organizers shift toward scheduled demonstrations after the first wave of detentions and injuries draws scrutiny.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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