Contained Site Damage

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely path is that the Ozon logistics fire and Omsk MTBE damage remain localized, with Russian operators rerouting flows and making partial repairs. The repeated nature of the strikes keeps operational risk elevated, but the immediate market effect is mostly confined to named Russian assets.

What it moves

Non-Energy Materials−0.1%
Consumer Cyclicals−0.1%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?