Possible scenario
Limited Reversal
45% Chance
The White House order is treated as a poorly coordinated operational restriction rather than a full Ukraine-policy turn. Pentagon lawyers, National Security Council staff and SpaceX negotiate a written framework that restores most Ukrainian access while preserving some U.S. control over sensitive targeting uses.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Telecommunications +0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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