Possible scenario
Formal Ukraine Curb
25% Chance
The report proves to be the first visible step in a broader White House effort to limit Ukrainian operational autonomy. Intelligence-sharing and Starshield access are narrowed to keep the U.S. from being drawn into strikes viewed as escalatory by President Trump and senior aides.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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