Possible scenario
Congressional Pushback
20% Chance
Republicans and Democrats in Congress treat the White House-directed slowdown as an overreach that weakens Ukraine and politicizes a Pentagon-funded service. Hearings, funding riders and document demands force the administration either to reverse the order or defend the decision publicly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
- Telecommunications +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.