Possible scenario
White House Stonewalls
20% Chance
The administration refuses to provide key communications, turning the probe into a separation-of-powers fight. Markets react mainly to uncertainty and delay, not to a concrete change in trade policy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
- -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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