Possible scenario
Evidence Escalates Inquiry
25% Chance
Investigators obtain documents suggesting trade concessions were exchanged for investment pledges, payments, or politically valuable commitments. This would raise policy-reversal and enforcement risk for companies directly connected to the Japan, South Korea, and China approval episodes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
- Industrials -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.