Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
20% Chance
Omani and UN channels push both sides toward a short pause in attacks, framed around civilian aviation safety and humanitarian access. This scenario is plausible because neither Riyadh nor the Houthis may want airport casualties to trigger a wider confrontation that risks external pressure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Energy -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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