Possible scenario
Targeted Legal Aftermath
40% Chance
The most likely path is that David Rivera's sentencing remains a criminal-law endpoint rather than a market-moving Venezuela policy catalyst. Prosecutors defend the conviction, Rivera pursues appeal options, and the case becomes a warning to consultants and former officials dealing with PDVSA or Maduro-linked entities.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.