Sanctions-Oil Linkage

The sentencing could be folded into a broader U.S. argument that Maduro-linked entities used political access and opaque contracts to blunt sanctions. This scenario is less likely than a contained legal outcome, but it matters most for oil-sensitive names if OFAC or the State Department revisits Venezuela licenses.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.