Possible scenario
Embassy Security Tightens
45% Chance
Washington avoids a direct military response but sharply reduces movement by U.S. personnel in Kyiv. This is the most likely path because the strike endangered Americans without yet confirming U.S. casualties, making force-protection and diplomatic protest the default response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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