Possible scenario
Air Defense Surge
30% Chance
The United States and European allies respond by accelerating air-defense shipments rather than changing the broader rules of engagement. This is plausible because Ukraine's exhausted Patriot stocks are the immediate vulnerability exposed by the strike.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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