• 

  38%

  +0.2%

  Probe Contains Damage

  Nvidia’s board investigation concludes that Jensen Huang was targeted by an alleged Chinese intelligence-linked contact but finds no evidence that he knowingly aided espionage or altered corporate policy. The company strengthens disclosure and travel protocols, but Huang remains CEO and the H200 China sales decision is treated as a Washington policy matter rather than a Nvidia governance failure.

• 

  27%

  −0.4%

  Huang Stays Weakened

  The investigation finds poor judgment and incomplete disclosures around Huang’s relationship with the suspected operative, but not enough to remove him. Nvidia preserves leadership continuity while adding governance constraints, reducing the immediate key-person shock but leaving headline risk unresolved.

  Technology −0.3%

• 

  20%

  −1.1%

  Export Policy Reversal

  Washington shifts the focus from Huang’s personal conduct to whether the Trump administration’s earlier approval of H200 sales to China created national-security exposure. Nvidia remains operationally strong, but investors face renewed uncertainty over China revenue, export licenses, and future AI-chip configurations for Chinese customers.

  Technology −1.5%

• 

  15%

  −1.2%

  Leadership Legal Crisis

  The probe uncovers facts severe enough to force a leadership change or trigger formal enforcement action. Because Huang is a founder-CEO central to Nvidia’s investor narrative and customer relationships, this outcome would produce the largest company-specific reaction.

  Technology −1.4%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.