Possible scenario
Managed Gulf Disruption
42% Chance
The most likely path is that Iran-linked risks keep a large geopolitical premium in European gas, but shipping through the Gulf does not fully break down. Qatar, the U.S., and European buyers prioritize restoring partial LNG flows while insurers and navies impose stricter routing and security costs.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.