Possible scenario
Diplomatic Energy Relief
20% Chance
The U.S., Iran, Qatar, and European governments find a way to reduce immediate escalation risk without resolving the broader war. Energy markets quickly remove part of the war premium, giving relief to European utilities, manufacturers, and consumer cyclicals.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -3.5%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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