Possible scenario
Gulf Supply Escalation
28% Chance
A further U.S.-Iran exchange or proxy attack disrupts energy shipping more directly. This is a lower-probability but high-impact path because Qatar's LNG halt and Hormuz strikes already show a conflict channel into global energy supply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.4%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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