Possible scenario
Temporary Supply Squeeze
45% Chance
The hurricane-related US Gulf outage proves short-lived, while Saudi repair crews contain damage from recent Houthi strikes. Traders keep a modest geopolitical premium in crude, but the market avoids a full supply panic.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
- VLO-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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