Possible scenario
Security Response Stabilizes
20% Chance
Washington, Riyadh, and regional partners reinforce air defense and maritime security without a major retaliatory escalation. Energy markets fade part of the geopolitical premium as traders focus on inventories and restart timelines.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.1%
- Consumer Services +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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