Possible scenario
Prolonged Outages Tighten Oil
25% Chance
Damage assessments in Saudi Arabia and the US Gulf take longer than initially expected. The combination of storm outages, damaged Saudi infrastructure, and already-restrained OPEC+ supply pushes crude materially higher.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
- Consumer Services -1.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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