Possible scenario
Trust Rift Deepens
18% Chance
Kyiv remains unconvinced by the weather explanation and publicly demands formal guarantees that warnings will not be delayed. The episode aggravates strains between Ukraine and the Trump administration, raising doubts about intelligence-sharing reliability.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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