Possible scenario
Congress Probes Gap
25% Chance
US lawmakers treat the missed warning as a governance and oversight issue, even if the explanation is partly technical. The episode becomes a partisan fight over whether Ukraine intelligence support is being managed consistently.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.