Possible scenario
Security Alignment Deepens
18% Chance
Pakistan and Turkey move beyond statements by increasing intelligence sharing, air-defense coordination or symbolic military support to Saudi Arabia. The most likely version is advisory and defensive, not direct combat operations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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