Possible scenario
Intercepted Attacks Persist
28% Chance
The Houthis keep launching missiles and drones, but Saudi systems intercept most incoming threats. This outcome fits the recent pattern of repeated attacks, military interception and limited confirmed damage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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