Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
42% Chance
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey keep the response centered on condemnation, OIC coordination and calls for restraint. This is the most likely path because none of the three governments benefits from a broader regional war, and Saudi air defenses have already limited physical damage in recent attacks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.