Possible scenario
Stutting Holds Seat
35% Chance
Mike Stutting consolidates Republican voters after trailing in the October poll and holds the seat for the GOP. This would suggest the survey overstated Democratic crossover strength or captured a temporary post-primary weakness.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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