Possible scenario
Recount-Level Finish
15% Chance
The race finishes inside recount territory, with neither campaign immediately conceding. Because the seat could matter to House math, political uncertainty rises slightly, but the market effect remains small and short-lived.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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