Possible scenario
Zimmer Narrowly Wins
42% Chance
Catelin Zimmer converts the 46%-43% polling edge into a narrow Democratic pickup in a district Donald Trump carried by 21 points. The result would likely be read as evidence that Democrats can compete in deeply Republican rural and small-city seats in 2026.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.