Possible scenario
Paxton Survives Leaks
35% Chance
Ken Paxton absorbs the latest leaked audio by framing it as a Cornyn-aligned establishment attack. Donald Trump's prior endorsement remains the decisive signal for many GOP runoff voters, allowing Paxton to stay narrowly ahead despite reputational damage.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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