Possible scenario
GOP Civil War
20% Chance
The leak intensifies the feud between Paxton loyalists, Cornyn backers, and Trump-aligned activists. Even after the runoff, the losing faction withholds full support, making the Senate seat more expensive for Republicans to defend.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.