Possible scenario
EU Backfills Gap
38% Chance
The most likely path is that Brussels, Nordic capitals and Poland move to compensate for the absence of new U.S. aid. The Baltics frame the plan as a European pillar inside NATO rather than a break with NATO, reducing immediate market stress while lifting defense procurement expectations.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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