Possible scenario
Baltics Go Alone
27% Chance
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania proceed with national funds, emergency procurement and closer Nordic-Polish coordination. This is credible because the states already view Russian sabotage and surveillance pressure as immediate threats, but the scale remains too small to be a broad global macro shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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