Possible scenario
US Partly Reassures
20% Chance
Washington may avoid new direct aid while still offering rotational forces, intelligence sharing or air-policing support to prevent a visible NATO cohesion failure. This would reduce the risk premium created by the Baltics planning without U.S. help.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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