Managed Escalation

Iran uses calibrated military pressure to reinforce Ghalibaf's demand that Washington accept Tehran's terms, but avoids steps likely to trigger a major U.S. campaign. This is the most likely path because both sides have already exchanged strikes but still appear to preserve channels for coercive bargaining.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.