Possible scenario
Backchannel De-escalation
23% Chance
Despite maximalist rhetoric, Washington and Tehran use Oman or Qatar to reopen indirect contacts. This path is plausible because both sides have recently demonstrated willingness to talk even while threatening force.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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