Possible scenario
Gulf Spillover
20% Chance
Iran or aligned groups expand pressure into Gulf shipping lanes, Iraq, Syria, or Lebanon, raising the risk that the conflict affects regional energy flows. This is less likely than managed escalation but remains credible because the prior timeline includes direct U.S.-Iran strikes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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