Possible scenario
Threat Without Invocation
42% Chance
Trump continues using the Insurrection Act threat as leverage against Democratic-led cities but does not formally invoke it before the midterms. This is the most likely path because courts have already questioned prior deployments, and the political cost of a pre-election invocation would be high.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.