Possible scenario
Multi-City Escalation
15% Chance
The administration invokes the Insurrection Act across multiple Democratic-led jurisdictions, arguing that unrest and resistance to federal operations require national action. This is less likely than a narrow invocation but would create a sharper constitutional and market-risk event before the midterms.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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