Possible scenario
Limited Act Invocation
28% Chance
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act in a limited way, most likely tied to unrest in a single city where the administration claims state officials are obstructing federal law. The order triggers immediate lawsuits but is framed narrowly enough to avoid an instant nationwide market shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Consumer Services -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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