Possible scenario
Military Escalation
25% Chance
Riyadh rejects renewed truce offers and intensifies strikes on Houthi launch sites, potentially with expanded U.S. intelligence and air-defense support. Markets price a higher probability of further attacks on Saudi infrastructure and shipping lanes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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